Re: Interesting Analysis of Paper Ballot Counts in NH Primary

[tom bldr <tom_bldr@xxxxxxxxx>]

This Dean/Kerry NH Primary question was being
discussed late last week at a messageboard I read. I
replied,

snip

from http://www.livejournal.com/users/explodedview/ re
the NH Primary/Diebold anamolies: 

"Let me note that neither the Diebold nor the ES&S
ballots lack a paper trail in this case. These are
optical-scan systems, where the voter marks a paper
ballot that is subsequently counted by computer. There
is, then, the possibility of a recount, but only if
the issue is forced, since the election was not
considered close enough to mandate an automatic
recount." 

If the exit poll/diebold numbers are off so
strikingly, wouldn't it be wise for the Deansters to
conduct a hand recount of all ballots? And/or the VVPT
groups seeking to build their case? 

Dean blew his wad on an IA/NH hail mary play...
proving he was "diebolded" in NH would breath new life
into his campaign, and blow the blackbox voting
trainwreck onto the mainstream airwaves in a big way.
Dean was one of the few making noises about vvpt-- so
this is a winning move in every way, no? If so, hand
recounting SOON is key, as with less than 10% of the
electorate having voted, his perceived momentum and
the funds which follow are drying up quick. 

edit: okay, recounting could be a losing move on two
fronts if nothing "wrong" is uncovered. If the
Diebold/exit poll discrepancy were a complete
coincidence, and the hand recount of diebold-counted
ballots yielded the same results as the diebold
machines, then 1) DeanCo would look foolish, and 2)
the VVPT movement would be dealt a huge credibility
blow. Solution? Recount quietly. Hell, if the trend
continues, the media wouldn't make a peep about the
matter regardless-- unless of course it ended up being
a huge Diebold vindication.

snip

Another poster who has a registered handle at the Dean
blog (unlike me) said he'd posted it to the blog, and
emailed the campaign. I haven't heard anything since. 

--- Joe Pezzillo <jpezzillo@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> 
> See the article about halfway down, methodology and
> SQL code for 
> analysis is explained first:
> 
> Kerry Beat Dean in New Hampshire by Only 1.5% When
> Computers Were Not 
> Doing the Counting
> <http://www.livejournal.com/users/explodedview/>
> 


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