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Ballots Favored Dems
By Jim Stratton
The Orlando Sentinel
Wednesday 22 November 2006
Sarasota's "undervotes" were examined in 5 state races.
The group of nearly 18,000 voters that registered no choice in Sarasota's disputed congressional election solidly backed Democratic candidates in all five of Florida's statewide races, an Orlando Sentinel analysis of ballot data shows.
Among these voters, even the weakest Democrat - agriculture commissioner candidate Eric Copeland - outpaced a much-better-known Republican incumbent by 551 votes.
The trend, which continues up the ticket to the race for governor and US Senate, suggests that if votes were truly cast and lost - as Democrat Christine Jennings maintains - they were votes that likely cost her the congressional election.
Republican Vern Buchanan's 369-vote victory was certified by state officials Monday. His camp says that, although people may have skipped the race - intentionally or not - there is no evidence that votes went missing.
But the results of the Sentinel analysis, two experts said, warrant additional investigation.
"Wow," University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato said. "That's very suggestive - I'd even say strongly suggestive - that if there had been votes recorded, she [Jennings] would have won that House seat."
David Dill, an electronic-voting expert at Stanford University, put it this way: "It seems to establish with certainty that more Democrats are represented in those undervoted ballots."
The Sentinel reviewed records of 17,846 touch-screen ballots that included no vote in the tightly contested 13th District congressional race to determine whom voters selected in other major races.
The analysis of the so-called "undervotes" examined the races for US Senate, governor, attorney general, chief financial officer and agriculture commissioner.
The results showed that the undervoted ballots skewed Democratic in all of those races, even in the three races in which the county as a whole went Republican.
In the governor's race, for example, Republican Charlie Crist won handily in Sarasota, easily beating Democrat Jim Davis. But on the undervoted ballots, Davis finished ahead by almost 7 percentage points.
In the agriculture commissioner's race, Republican Charles Bronson beat Copeland by a double-digit margin among all voters. But on the undervoted ballots, Copeland won by about 3 percentage points.
Some Questions Remain
The analysis does not - and cannot - reveal why no congressional choice was recorded on the ballots. It also cannot determine which candidate any single voter might have selected had he or she made a choice.
But the strong performance of other Democrats indicates Jennings would have found a sizable number of supporters within the group.
"If votes were actually lost," Dill said, "it appears those votes would have favored the Democrat."
About 15 percent of ballots cast on Sarasota's touch-screen machines registered no choice in the bitterly fought congressional race. That percentage was about six times greater than the undervote in the rest of the House district, which spreads into four other counties.
Since Election Day, dozens - if not hundreds - of voters have reported problems at the polls. Some say their vote for Jennings never registered after they touched her name. Others say they never saw the congressional race on the machine's screen.
The Jennings campaign argues that only a machine malfunction can account for the high number of undervotes in the congressional race.
Her experts claim that because Jennings won in Sarasota by a 52 percent-to-47 percent margin - the only county she carried - she would have picked up the bulk of any votes that were lost. Those votes, they say, would have been enough to defeat Buchanan.
On Monday, Jennings filed a lawsuit in Tallahassee seeking to reverse the results or hold a new election.
Buchanan's camp says that undervotes may simply be voters exercising their choice not to make a selection in a race.
His supporters say two recounts have confirmed Buchanan's victory, and neither found a problem with the voting machines.
The Republican's experts acknowledge that some people may have missed the race because of a poor ballot design, but that problem, they say, would have affected all voters equally.
A representative from the Buchanan campaign was not available late Tuesday to comment on the Sentinel analysis. But earlier this week, Republicans said Jennings was attempting to accomplish in court what she couldn't do at the polls.
"Christine Jennings is once again allowing her own personal ambitions and the radical political agendas of liberal third-party groups to hijack the democratic process," GOP state Chairwoman Carole Jean Jordan said. "The votes have now been counted three times, once on Election Day and twice since then in state-mandated recounts; yet Christine Jennings will not step forward and do what is right for the voters of the 13th Congressional District, which is to concede."
A Jennings spokesman said the results of the Sentinel analysis are consistent with what the Democrats have been saying all along.
"That reflects what we've seen anecdotally," David Kochman said. "The overwhelming majority of reports of voters having problems say they were trying to vote for Christine Jennings. It's nearly unanimous."
A representative from the Buchanan campaign was not available Tuesday night.
"Potentially a Test Case"
A judge, meanwhile, refused to speed up testing set for next week on Sarasota's touch-screen machines after a preliminary hearing Tuesday.
Circuit Judge William Gary rejected a motion to do the testing today. He put Jennings' challenge on a fast track, but not as quick as she wanted, by giving election officials 15 days to complete testing of machines used in Sarasota County.
Jennings' attorney, Kendall Coffey, urged Gary to resolve the case before the next session of Congress begins Jan. 3 and told him the case had national implications.
"These questions about the reliability of these computerized voting systems are asked not just here but throughout the country," Coffey said. "This is indeed potentially a test case for the nation."
Gary sided with lawyers for state and local election officials and Buchanan, who asked for more time to make sure it is done right. The testing is set for next Tuesday as part of a state audit.
The results of the election are also being challenged by four advocacy groups: the American Civil Liberties Union, People for the American Way, Voter Action and the Electronic Frontier Foundation.
Sean Holton and Katy Moore of the Sentinel staff contributed to this report. Wire services also were used.
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