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Scoop says NC's 8th like FL's 13th



Wrong Winner Chosen Twice by Same Voting Machine
Monday, 15 January 2007, 4:42 pm
Article: Michael Collins

Congress Seats Two Clear "Losers"

Wrong Winner Chosen Twice by Same Voting Machine

Examining Florida 13th and North Carolina 8th
Congressional Districts Leaves Little Doubt
Michael Collins
Part 2 of a Series Part 1
Washington, DC.

The Election Contest filed by Democrat Christine Jennings and her
attorney Kendall Coffey creates complications that could blow the
electronic voting world to pieces. In the simplest terms, the Jennings
Florida 13th Congressional district case requires a review of the
Kissell loss in North Carolina's 8th Congressional district. And that
spells disaster for e-voting.

Why? Because both the Florida and North Carolina districts used
iVotronics touch screen voting machines. These voting machines
produced very similar levels of counting errors. The errors cost both
Democrats thousands of votes. Ultimately, both Democratic candidates
were denied a victory by less than 400 votes.

While Jennings makes a very strong case for a voided election and new
vote in Florida, the case becomes virtually unassailable when
reviewing results from North Carolina. At the same time, the North
Carolina 8th results, reviewed in the context of the election contest
analysis of Florida's 13th, makes it abundantly clear that the loser,
Kissell, should have won in almost any scenario other than voting
machine malfunction.

In both districts, the iVotronic touch screen voting machines produced
undervote rates at or above 15%. What this means is that supposedly
one in seven voters cast ballots but left out a choice for the most
important election (an unmarked race on an otherwise marked ballot is
called an undervote). The only culprit in both the Florida 13th and
North Carolina 8th elections is voting machine malfunction. The facts
supporting the case for losers winning don't allow for much debate in
these Florida and North Carolina races. They're simple and a review
leads to conclusions that devastate any trust in electronic voting.

ADVERTISEMENT
The Florida election contest brief filed in Congress looks at data
within the 13th Congressional district and data from other Florida
districts. Coffey notes that the undervote rate in Sarasota County is
six times the undervote rate in surrounding counties in the same
district. How did that happen? These are contiguous counties and part
of the same congressional district.

Coffey performs a rhetorical slam dunk by looking at undervotes for
the two types of early voting in Sarasota County. Early voting by mail
required voters to mark their choices on optical scan paper ballots
then mail the ballots to the elections board where they were totaled
using optical scan readers. Mail in early voting undervotes were at
2.6%. In person early voters came to central locations and voted on
iVotronic touch screens like those used in the general election.
Undervotes by that method ran 17.6%. There is no reason for a
difference of 15 points other than the one provided by Coffey in the
Jennings case: voting machine malfunction by the iVotronics. As a
result, 14,000 Sarasota County voters lost their constitutional
rights. The election should be voided and a new one held.

Mecklenburg County, NC and the End of Electronic Voting

One might argue that this is an exaggerated claim but review the facts
and decide yourself.

Any serious evaluation of the Jennings election contest by Congress
leads right to North Carolina's Mecklenburg County. iVotronic touch
screens were used in the Jennings race and three Congressional races
in Mecklenburg. That county holds the answers to both the Jennings
contest and a resolution of another 2006 travesty, the loss of
Democrat Larry Kissell in that North Carolina's 8th Congressional
District.

As a result of voting problems in 2004, North Carolina requires a
paper trail for touch screen voting machines. Right now there are
paper receipts for each vote cast in these three districts. The test
is simple. Total the votes for Congress on paper trail receipts in
each Congressional district and compare those totals to the vote
totals from the iVotronic touch screens. If paper receipts show more
votes for Congress than reported by the touch screens, the variance
points clearly to an iVotronic machine error. If Jennings could
provide such data, this would add a compelling new level of evidence
added to her case.

If the paper trail receipts are available and examined, they represent
a smoking gun that validates the Florida case. Even without the paper
receipts, there is strong support to argue that the same class of
touch screens used in Florida, iVotronics, produced exceptional, no
unbelievable rates of undervotes in North Carolina not evident in high
visibility races.



Click for big versionsiVotronic voting machines were used in
Mecklenburg County in 2006. The county contains part of three
Congressional Districts. The graph on the left shows very high
undervotes in the 8th and 12th. In the 8th, Democrat Kissell lost by
329 votes with an undervote rate close to that in the Jennings race.

A preliminary look at 2006 and 2004 undervote rates shows that the
2006 undervote rate in Mecklenburg County, NC indicates that the
iVotronic machines throw away votes. Using the county as a whole, in
2006 the average Congressional undervote rate (for all three races)
was 11%. In 2006, the Congressional race was the lead or one of the
lead races. In 2004, with vote totals for President as the baseline,
the undervote rate in Mecklenburg was 2.6%. Thus, undervotes increased
by a factor of four from 2004 to 2006.

By investigating Jennings claims through the use of the highly
pertinent and available data from North Carolina, it becomes
abundantly clear that Democrat Kissell lost that contest due to
machine malfunction – by the very same type of machines used in the
Jennings race. Since the undervote rates in these distant and
disparate counties were almost the same, the data on Kissell supports
Jennings claims.

Below you see the electronic nightmare created by analysis of the
North Carolina race. The graph on the left shows 3,199 undervotes
(16.6%) in Democrat Kissell's stronghold in Mecklenburg. On the right,
the victory margin district wide for Republican Hayes is shown next to
the undervotes for just Mecklenburg where Democrat Kissell won by a
two to one margin. The North Carolina 9th and 12th races were blow
outs. The 8th was not. In the very area where Kissell was strongest,
le lost 3,199 voters, many of whom would have voted for him.



The undervotes in the Mecklenburg portion of the 8th were more than
nine times the victory margin for the entire district and they
occurred in a voting area that went 68%
to 32% for the Democratic Party candidate, Larry Kissell.


Let's assume a typical rate of undevotes at a generous 3%, or 579
votes, and Kissell's Mecklenburg share of 68% of the votes couted. The
math is easy. Kissell wins. Presume that Kissell's undervote rate of
16.6% is the final proof (with or without recounting the paper trail
voting receipts) of voting machine malfunction in Jennings' Florida
district. It's easy, Jennings wins. These numbers won't go away.

We now have two members of Congress seated as a result of elections
decided by less than 400 votes. A simple analysis of current and
historical data for expected undervotes shows that the double digit
undervote rates in each candidate's stronghold resulted in lost votes;
votes that would have lead to a victory by either of the now
designated losing candidates. The first shall be last, once again.

Stay tuned.




Data Sources:
Mecklenburg County Board of Elections 8th District 11/30/06
Mecklenburg County Board of Elections 9th District 11/30/06
Mecklenburg County Board of Elections 12th District 11/30/06
Screen Shots of Districts 8, 9, 12 Mecklenburg


*****ENDS*****
(c) Copyright. Please feel free to reproduce and distribute this in
any fashion you feel suitable with an attribution to the author,
Michael Collins, and the publisher, "Scoop" Independent News, plus a
link to the article.







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