[Date Prev][Date Next][Thread Prev][Thread Next][Date Index][Thread Index]
[no subject]
A WEEK is a long time in politics. And a decade is a long time in political
science. Ten years ago, bright young academics would probably have thought
that analysing the impact of ballot formats and comparing the merits of
voting machines was unworthy of intellectual pursuit. The 2000 presidential
election in America, with its butterfly ballots and controversial outcome,
changed all that and spurred a more scientific approach to studying voting
and how it might be subverted.
One way to detect fraud is to use statistics. Walter Mebane and his team at
Cornell University have devised a new method of doing so, which they
described to the American Association for the Advancement of Science. It is
similar to that of a mathematical curiosity known as Benford's law. This la=
w
states that in certain long lists of numbers, such as tables of logarithms
or the lengths of rivers, the first digit of each number is unevenly
distributed between one and nine. Instead, there are far more numbers
beginning with one=97about a third of the total=97and far fewer starting wi=
th
nine. For example, a 2km stream is twice as long as a 1km stream; by
contrast, a 10km stream is only 11% longer than a 9km stream. So you will
find more streams measuring between 1km and 2km than between 9km and 10km.
[image: Click Here!]
<http://ad.doubleclick.net/activity;src%3D1041388%3Bmet%3D1%3Bv%3D1%3Bpid%3=
D15806503%3Baid%3D74898706%3Bko%3D0%3Bcid%3D20011325%3Brid%3D20029219%3Brv%=
3D2%3Bcs%3Dc%3Beid1%3D1051%3Becn1%3D1%3Betm1%3D0%3B_dc_redir%3Durl%3fhttp:/=
/ad.doubleclick.net/click%3Bh=3Dv8/3504/3/0/%2a/n%3B74898706%3B0-0%3B0%3B15=
806503%3B4252-336/280%3B20011325/20029219/2%3B%3B%7Efdr%3D73834233%3B0-0%3B=
1%3B7058143%3B799-350/300%3B20130737/20148631/1%3B%3B%7Esscs%3D%3fhttp://ww=
w.dell4healthcare.com/redirect.php?redirect_id=3D134162>
[image:
Click Here!]<http://ad.doubleclick.net/jump/main.economist.com/scienceart;p=
os=3Dv5_art350x300;sect=3Dscience;sz=3D350x300;tile=3D1;ord=3D89934888?>
The pattern that Dr Mebane has detected concerns not the first but the
second digit of lists of election results from different precincts of a
constituency, where he also observes a non-uniform distribution of possible
digits. The effect is far more subtle, with zero occurring about 12% of the
time and nine turning up on 9% of occasions. Dr Mebane has observed this
pattern with great consistency for voting results from precincts across the
United States in recent elections. The cases where there are significant
deviations from the pattern correlate well with places where there have bee=
n
known problems of election rigging.
In contrast with more sophisticated statistical analyses, which require
laborious research to correlate voting patterns with variables such as race=
,
wealth or historical precedent, Dr Mebane's test can be applied to data
without further ado. It is a very simple test for fraud.
Dr Mebane is careful to point out that the test is not foolproof. It
sometimes fails to detect a discrepancy in a vote that is known to have bee=
n
problematic, and occasionally detects fiddling where there was none.
However, he has managed to develop a mathematical model that explains the
distribution of the second digits, putting what might appear to be a
statistical oddity on a more solid footing. He has also had some encouragin=
g
success using it in practice.
One example concerns an analysis of the last three elections in Bangladesh.
The 1991 election showed no strange results. For the 1996 election some 2%
of results were problematic. And fully 9% of the results in 2001 failed the
test. The 2001 election was fiercely contested. Yet monitors from the Carte=
r
Centre and the European Union found the election to be acceptably, if not
entirely, free and fair. Tests like Dr Mebane's one could provide monitors
with quantitative estimates of exactly how free and fair an election has
been, on which to base their qualitative judgment of whether that is indeed
acceptable.
As Jasjeet Sekhon of the University of California, Berkeley, points out, th=
e
emerging field of election forensics presents opportunities as well as
risks. In the best cases, it is encouraging political scientists to team up
in an interdisciplinary way with statisticians, economists, psychologists
and even software engineers, to understand the complex interplay between
human and technological factors that can influence an election. These
collaborations force political scientists to question some of their
cherished assumptions in the light of insights that experts from other
disciplines bring to the problem.
On the downside, the excitement surrounding this sort of research can
attract self-appointed experts with a limited knowledge of the realities of
voting. For example, statistical discrepancies between exit polls and actua=
l
votes cast have been used by some to deduce widespread fraud on statistical
grounds. In fact, it has long been known that exit polls, though they may
claim to be based on random samples, suffer from biases in the way that the=
y
are conducted. In America these tend to skew the results towards the
Democrats.
Dr Sekhon notes that, thanks to Karl Rove, the mastermind of George Bush's
election victories in 2000 and 2004, the Republicans have been far more
effective at exploiting new scientific information about voting and
elections. Indeed, several of his colleagues have been surprised to receive
hand-written notes from Mr Rove pointing out minor blemishes in their
academic articles. "In contrast, the Democrats have had faith-based
electioneering tactics," says Dr Sekhon. The party often engages in
activities such as contacting people who have voted in the primaries, which
can be shown to be a waste of time and money. In 2008 its workers would do
well to consult the latest scientific literature instead.
Back to top =BB<http://www.economist.com/science/displaystory.cfm?story_id=
=3D8733747#top>
- Printable page<http://www.economist.com/science/PrinterFriendly.cfm?st=
ory_id=3D8733747>
- E-mail this<http://www.economist.com/email/emailafriend.cfm?story_id=
=3D8733747>
Related Items More articles about...
- Jargon and
statistics<http://www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/display.cfm?=
id=3D348972>
Websites
Dr Mebane posts research papers <http://macht.arts.cornell.edu/> on his
home-page.
Advertisement
<http://ad.doubleclick.net/click%3Bh=3Dv8/3504/3/0/%2a/k%3B73534628%3B0-0%3=
B0%3B15469059%3B2321-160/600%3B19928465/19946359/1%3B%3B%7Efdr%3D69703550%3=
B0-0%3B1%3B7058143%3B11903-160/601%3B19941834/19959728/1%3B%3B%7Esscs%3D%3f=
http://www.bp.com/productlanding.do?categoryId=3D9009832&contentId=3D701859=
8><http://ad.doubleclick.net/click%3Bh=3Dv8/3504/3/0/%2a/k%3B73534628%3B0-0=
%3B0%3B15469059%3B2321-160/600%3B19928465/19946359/1%3B%3B%7Efdr%3D69703550=
%3B0-0%3B1%3B7058143%3B11903-160/601%3B19941834/19959728/1%3B%3B%7Esscs%3D%=
3fhttp://www.bp.com/productlanding.do?categoryId=3D9009832&contentId=3D7018=
598>[image:
Click Here!]<http://ad.doubleclick.net/jump/main.economist.com/scienceart;p=
os=3Dv5_art_right160x600;sect=3Dscience;sz=3D160x601;tile=3D5;ord=3D8993488=
8?>
Advertisement
[image: Click here to find out
more!]<http://ad.doubleclick.net/click;h=3Dv8/3504/0/0/%2a/g;74153225;0-0;2=
;7058143;1-468/60;19975525/19993419/1;;~sscs=3D%3fhttp://www.economistshop.=
com>
[image:
Click Here!]<http://ad.doubleclick.net/jump/main.economist.com/scienceart;p=
os=3Dart728x90;sect=3Dscience;sz=3D468x60;tile=3D6;ord=3D89934888?>
------=_Part_69804_12894004.1172428150636
Content-Type: text/html; charset=WINDOWS-1252
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Content-Disposition: inline
<p class=3D"fly-title">Political science</p>
<h1>Election forensics</h1>
<p class=3D"info">Feb 22nd 2007 | SAN FRANCISCO<br>From <em>The Economist</=
em> print edition</p>
<h2>How to detect voting fiddles</h2><br>
<p>A WEEK is a long time in politics. And a decade is a long time in politi=
cal science. Ten years ago, bright young academics would probably have thou=
ght that analysing the impact of ballot formats and comparing the merits of=
voting machines was unworthy of intellectual pursuit. The 2000 presidentia=
l election in America, with its butterfly ballots and controversial outcome=
, changed all that and spurred a more scientific approach to studying votin=
g and how it might be subverted.=20
</p>
<p>One way to detect fraud is to use statistics. Walter Mebane and his team=
at Cornell University have devised a new method of doing so, which they de=
scribed to the American Association for the Advancement of Science. It is s=
imilar to that of a mathematical curiosity known as Benford's law. This=
law states that in certain long lists of numbers, such as tables of logari=
thms or the lengths of rivers, the first digit of each number is unevenly d=
istributed between one and nine. Instead, there are far more numbers beginn=
ing with one=97about a third of the total=97and far fewer starting with nin=
e. For example, a 2km stream is twice as long as a 1km stream; by contrast,=
a 10km stream is only 11% longer than a 9km stream. So you will find more =
streams measuring between 1km and 2km than between 9km and 10km.
</p>
<div class=3D"banner">
<div align=3D"center"><span></span><span></span><span></span><span></span>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>
<div id=3D"OUTER_DIV_20029219_11172427935859" style=3D"Z-INDEX: 99999; POSI=
TION: relative"><img id=3D"EXPANDO_PLACEHOLDER_20029219_11172427935859" sty=
le=3D"VISIBILITY: hidden" height=3D"280" alt=3D"" src=3D"http://m1.2mdn.net=
/dot.gif" width=3D"336" border=3D"0">
=20
<div id=3D"DIV_20029219_11172427935859" onmouseover=3D"dartCreativeDisplayM=
anagers['GlobalTemplate_20029219_1172427935859'].onMouseOver('2=
0029219_11172427935859');" style=3D"Z-INDEX: 99999; LEFT: -164px; VISIB=
ILITY: visible; CLIP: rect(220px 500px 500px 164px); POSITION: absolute; TO=
P: -220px; TEXT-ALIGN: left" onmouseout=3D"dartCreativeDisplayManagers['=
;GlobalTemplate_20029219_1172427935859'].onMouseOut('20029219_11172=
427935859');">
<span></span></div><span></span></div></td></tr></tbody></table><noscript>
=09=09=09<a target=3D"_blank" href=3D"http://ad.doubleclick.net/activity;sr=
c%3D1041388%3Bmet%3D1%3Bv%3D1%3Bpid%3D15806503%3Baid%3D74898706%3Bko%3D0%3B=
cid%3D20011325%3Brid%3D20029219%3Brv%3D2%3Bcs%3Dc%3Beid1%3D1051%3Becn1%3D1%=
3Betm1%3D0%3B_dc_redir%3Durl%3fhttp://ad.doubleclick.net/click%3Bh=3Dv8/350=
4/3/0/%2a/n%3B74898706%3B0-0%3B0%3B15806503%3B4252-336/280%3B20011325/20029=
219/2%3B%3B%7Efdr%3D73834233%3B0-0%3B1%3B7058143%3B799-350/300%3B20130737/2=
0148631/1%3B%3B%7Esscs%3D%3fhttp://www.dell4healthcare.com/redirect.php?red=
irect_id=3D134162">
=09=09=09<img src=3D"http://m1.2mdn.net/1041388/PID_177459_336x280.jpg"; wid=
th=3D"336" height=3D"280" border=3D"0" alt=3D"Click Here!">
=09=09=09</a>
=09=09=09<img src=3D"http://ad.doubleclick.net/activity;src=3D1041388;met=
=3D1;v=3D1;pid=3D15806503;aid=3D74898706;ko=3D0;cid=3D20011325;rid=3D200292=
19;rv=3D2;&timestamp=3D6913130;eid1=3D9;ecn1=3D1;etm1=3D0;" width=3D"0p=
x" height=3D"0px" style=3D"visibility:hidden" border=3D"0">
=09=09=09<img src=3D"" width=3D"0px" height=3D"0px" style=3D"visibility:hid=
den" border=3D"0">
=09=09=09</noscript><span></span><noscript><a target=3D"advert" href=3D"htt=
p://ad.doubleclick.net/jump/main.economist.com/scienceart;pos=3Dv5_art350x3=
00;sect=3Dscience;sz=3D350x300;tile=3D1;ord=3D89934888?"><img src=3D"http:/=
/ad.doubleclick.net/ad/main.economist.com/scienceart;pos=3Dv5_art350x300;se=
ct=3Dscience;sz=3D350x300;tile=3D1;ord=3D89934888?" border=3D"0" alt=3D"Cli=
ck Here!" align=3D"middle" hspace=3D"2" vspace=3D"2">
</a></noscript></div></div>
<p></p>
<p>The pattern that Dr Mebane has detected concerns not the first but the s=
econd digit of lists of election results from different precincts of a cons=
tituency, where he also observes a non-uniform distribution of possible dig=
its. The effect is far more subtle, with zero occurring about 12% of the ti=
me and nine turning up on 9% of occasions. Dr Mebane has observed this patt=
ern with great consistency for voting results from precincts across the Uni=
ted States in recent elections. The cases where there are significant devia=
tions from the pattern correlate well with places where there have been kno=
wn problems of election rigging.
</p>
<p>In contrast with more sophisticated statistical analyses, which require =
laborious research to correlate voting patterns with variables such as race=
, wealth or historical precedent, Dr Mebane's test can be applied to da=
ta without further ado. It is a very simple test for fraud.=20
</p>
<p>Dr Mebane is careful to point out that the test is not foolproof. It som=
etimes fails to detect a discrepancy in a vote that is known to have been p=
roblematic, and occasionally detects fiddling where there was none. However=
, he has managed to develop a mathematical model that explains the distribu=
tion of the second digits, putting what might appear to be a statistical od=
dity on a more solid footing. He has also had some encouraging success usin=
g it in practice.=20
</p>
<p>One example concerns an analysis of the last three elections in Banglade=
sh. The 1991 election showed no strange results. For the 1996 election some=
2% of results were problematic. And fully 9% of the results in 2001 failed=
the test. The 2001 election was fiercely contested. Yet monitors from the =
Carter Centre and the European Union found the election to be acceptably, i=
f not entirely, free and fair. Tests like Dr Mebane's one could provide=
monitors with quantitative estimates of exactly how free and fair an elect=
ion has been, on which to base their qualitative judgment of whether that i=
s indeed acceptable.=20
</p>
<p>As Jasjeet Sekhon of the University of California, Berkeley, points out,=
the emerging field of election forensics presents opportunities as well as=
risks. In the best cases, it is encouraging political scientists to team u=
p in an interdisciplinary way with statisticians, economists, psychologists=
and even software engineers, to understand the complex interplay between h=
uman and technological factors that can influence an election. These collab=
orations force political scientists to question some of their cherished ass=
umptions in the light of insights that experts from other disciplines bring=
to the problem.
</p>
<p>On the downside, the excitement surrounding this sort of research can at=
tract self-appointed experts with a limited knowledge of the realities of v=
oting. For example, statistical discrepancies between exit polls and actual=
votes cast have been used by some to deduce widespread fraud on statistica=
l grounds. In fact, it has long been known that exit polls, though they may=
claim to be based on random samples, suffer from biases in the way that th=
ey are conducted. In America these tend to skew the results towards the Dem=
ocrats.=20
</p>
<p>Dr Sekhon notes that, thanks to Karl Rove, the mastermind of George Bush=
's election victories in 2000 and 2004, the Republicans have been far m=
ore effective at exploiting new scientific information about voting and ele=
ctions. Indeed, several of his colleagues have been surprised to receive ha=
nd-written notes from Mr Rove pointing out minor blemishes in their academi=
c articles. "In contrast, the Democrats have had faith-based electioneering=
tactics," says Dr Sekhon. The party often engages in activities such as co=
ntacting people who have voted in the primaries, which can be shown to be a=
waste of time and money. In 2008 its workers would do well to consult the =
latest scientific literature instead.=20
</p><br clear=3D"all">
<p class=3D"back-to-top"><a href=3D"http://www.economist.com/science/displa=
ystory.cfm?story_id=3D8733747#top"><font color=3D"#6291a5">Back to top =BB<=
/font></a> </p>
<div class=3D"col-right">
<ul>
<li class=3D"print"><a href=3D"http://www.economist.com/science/PrinterFrie=
ndly.cfm?story_id=3D8733747"><font color=3D"#6291a5">Printable page</font><=
/a>=20
<li class=3D"email-this"><a href=3D"http://www.economist.com/email/emailafr=
iend.cfm?story_id=3D8733747"><font color=3D"#6291a5">E-mail this</font></a>=
</li></li></ul>
<div class=3D"related-items">
<h1>Related Items</h1>
<h2>More articles about...</h2>
<ul>
<li><a href=3D"http://www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/display.=
cfm?id=3D348972"><font color=3D"#6291a5">Jargon and statistics</font></a> <=
/li></ul>
<h2>Websites</h2>
<p>Dr Mebane posts <a title=3D" (opens in a new window) " href=3D"http://ma=
cht.arts.cornell.edu/" target=3D"_blank"><font color=3D"#6291a5">research p=
apers</font></a> on his home-page.</p></div>
<div class=3D"banner">
<div align=3D"center">
<p>Advertisement</p><span></span><span></span><span></span><span></span><sp=
an></span><span></span><a target=3D"_blank" href=3D"http://ad.doubleclick.n=
et/click%3Bh=3Dv8/3504/3/0/%2a/k%3B73534628%3B0-0%3B0%3B15469059%3B2321-160=
/600%3B19928465/19946359/1%3B%3B%7Efdr%3D69703550%3B0-0%3B1%3B7058143%3B119=
03-160/601%3B19941834/19959728/1%3B%3B%7Esscs%3D%3fhttp://www.bp.com/produc=
tlanding.do?categoryId=3D9009832&contentId=3D7018598">
<img src=3D"http://m1.2mdn.net/1153120/WATERING_CAN_160x600.gif"; border=3D"=
0"></a><noscript><a target=3D"_blank" href=3D"http://ad.doubleclick.net/cli=
ck%3Bh=3Dv8/3504/3/0/%2a/k%3B73534628%3B0-0%3B0%3B15469059%3B2321-160/600%3=
B19928465/19946359/1%3B%3B%7Efdr%3D69703550%3B0-0%3B1%3B7058143%3B11903-160=
/601%3B19941834/19959728/1%3B%3B%7Esscs%3D%3fhttp://www.bp.com/productlandi=
ng.do?categoryId=3D9009832&contentId=3D7018598">
<img src=3D"http://m1.2mdn.net/1153120/WATERING_CAN_160x600.gif"; border=3D"=
0"></a></noscript><span></span><noscript><a target=3D"advert" href=3D"http:=
//ad.doubleclick.net/jump/main.economist.com/scienceart;pos=3Dv5_art_right1=
60x600;sect=3Dscience;sz=3D160x601;tile=3D5;ord=3D89934888?">
<img src=3D"http://ad.doubleclick.net/ad/main.economist.com/scienceart;pos=
=3Dv5_art_right160x600;sect=3Dscience;sz=3D160x601;tile=3D5;ord=3D89934888?=
" border=3D"0" alt=3D"Click Here!" align=3D"middle" hspace=3D"2" vspace=3D"=
2"></a></noscript></div>
</div></div>
<div id=3D"bannerspace-bottom">
<p>Advertisement</p>
<div align=3D"center"><span></span><span></span><span></span><a href=3D"htt=
p://ad.doubleclick.net/click;h=3Dv8/3504/0/0/%2a/g;74153225;0-0;2;7058143;1=
-468/60;19975525/19993419/1;;~sscs=3D%3fhttp://www.economistshop.com"; targe=
t=3D"_blank">
<img alt=3D"Click here to find out more!" src=3D"http://m1.2mdn.net/viewad/=
748873/style_guide_468x60.gif" border=3D"0"></a><span></span> <noscript><a =
target=3D"advert" href=3D"http://ad.doubleclick.net/jump/main.economist.com=
/scienceart;pos=3Dart728x90;sect=3Dscience;sz=3D468x60;tile=3D6;ord=3D89934=
888?">
<img src=3D"http://ad.doubleclick.net/ad/main.economist.com/scienceart;pos=
=3Dart728x90;sect=3Dscience;sz=3D468x60;tile=3D6;ord=3D89934888?" border=3D=
"0" alt=3D"Click Here!" align=3D"middle" hspace=3D"2" vspace=3D"2"></a></no=
script></div></div>
<br clear=3D"all">
------=_Part_69804_12894004.1172428150636--