Re: Interesting Analysis of Paper Ballot Counts in NH Primary

[Evan Daniel Ravitz <evan@xxxxxxxx>]

I bet he hasn't -assuming his campaign knows about this- because he
would probably have to PAY bigtime for any kind of recount.

And the big thing about campaigns are that they are a RACE. This is
probably "old news" to his managers.

But it is more evidence that, until NIST and a million programmers
have weighed in and agreed on an open-source system, much as in
Australia, hand-counting is the way to regain public confidence.

Trad not rad.

Evan

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On Mon, 9 Feb 2004, kellen carey wrote:

> I'm not sure I accept there is a problem w/ conducting recounts.  I recount change from stores, reexamine the writing of checks to/from me, etc, all the time.  Cross counting ought to be built into any election system.
>
> Dean has nothing to lose by recounting and everything to gain.
>
> kell
>
> tom bldr <tom_bldr@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> This Dean/Kerry NH Primary question was being
> discussed late last week at a messageboard I read. I
> replied,
>
> snip
>
> from http://www.livejournal.com/users/explodedview/ re
> the NH Primary/Diebold anamolies:
>
> "Let me note that neither the Diebold nor the ES&S
> ballots lack a paper trail in this case. These are
> optical-scan systems, where the voter marks a paper
> ballot that is subsequently counted by computer. There
> is, then, the possibility of a recount, but only if
> the issue is forced, since the election was not
> considered close enough to mandate an automatic
> recount."
>
> If the exit poll/diebold numbers are off so
> strikingly, wouldn't it be wise for the Deansters to
> conduct a hand recount of all ballots? And/or the VVPT
> groups seeking to build their case?
>
> Dean blew his wad on an IA/NH hail mary play...
> proving he was "diebolded" in NH would breath new life
> into his campaign, and blow the blackbox voting
> trainwreck onto the mainstream airwaves in a big way.
> Dean was one of the few making noises about vvpt-- so
> this is a winning move in every way, no? If so, hand
> recounting SOON is key, as with less than 10% of the
> electorate having voted, his perceived momentum and
> the funds which follow are drying up quick.
>
> edit: okay, recounting could be a losing move on two
> fronts if nothing "wrong" is uncovered. If the
> Diebold/exit poll discrepancy were a complete
> coincidence, and the hand recount of diebold-counted
> ballots yielded the same results as the diebold
> machines, then 1) DeanCo would look foolish, and 2)
> the VVPT movement would be dealt a huge credibility
> blow. Solution? Recount quietly. Hell, if the trend
> continues, the media wouldn't make a peep about the
> matter regardless-- unless of course it ended up being
> a huge Diebold vindication.
>
> snip
>
> Another poster who has a registered handle at the Dean
> blog (unlike me) said he'd posted it to the blog, and
> emailed the campaign. I haven't heard anything since.
>
> --- Joe Pezzillo wrote:
> >
> > See the article about halfway down, methodology and
> > SQL code for
> > analysis is explained first:
> >
> > Kerry Beat Dean in New Hampshire by Only 1.5% When
> > Computers Were Not
> > Doing the Counting
> >
> >
>
>
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