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Re: Interesting Analysis of Paper Ballot Counts in NH Primary



I found a discussion of this on the NH chat room of Black Box Voting last week.  Someone said the New Hampshire law requires the recount to be requested within three days of the election.  The apparent discrepancies were even bigger in Kucinich's count.
 
----- Original Message -----
From: Evan Daniel Ravitz
Sent: Monday, February 09, 2004 10:26 PM
To: kellen carey
Cc: cvv-discuss@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: Interesting Analysis of Paper Ballot Counts in NH Primary
 

I bet he hasn't -assuming his campaign knows about this- because he
would probably have to PAY bigtime for any kind of recount.

And the big thing about campaigns are that they are a RACE. This is
probably "old news" to his managers.

But it is more evidence that, until NIST and a million programmers
have weighed in and agreed on an open-source system, much as in
Australia, hand-counting is the way to regain public confidence.

Trad not rad.

Evan

----------------------------------------------
Evan Ravitz     303 440 6838     evan@xxxxxxxx
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Kucinich: the ONLY candidate to vote against the
"Patriot" Act and the Iraq war:  www.kucinich.us
-------------------------------------------------




On Mon, 9 Feb 2004, kellen carey wrote:

> I'm not sure I accept there is a problem w/ conducting recounts.  I recount change from stores, reexamine the writing of checks to/from me, etc, all the time.  Cross counting ought to be built into any election system.
>
> Dean has nothing to lose by recounting and everything to gain.
>
> kell
>
> tom bldr <tom_bldr@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> This Dean/Kerry NH Primary question was being
> discussed late last week at a messageboard I read. I
> replied,
>
> snip
>
> from http://www.livejournal.com/users/explodedview/ re
> the NH Primary/Diebold anamolies:
>
> "Let me note that neither the Diebold nor the ES&S
> ballots lack a paper trail in this case. These are
> optical-scan systems, where the voter marks a paper
> ballot that is subsequently counted by computer. There
> is, then, the possibility of a recount, but only if
> the issue is forced, since the election was not
> considered close enough to mandate an automatic
> recount."
>
> If the exit poll/diebold numbers are off so
> strikingly, wouldn't it be wise for the Deansters to
> conduct a hand recount of all ballots? And/or the VVPT
> groups seeking to build their case?
>
> Dean blew his wad on an IA/NH hail mary play...
> proving he was "diebolded" in NH would breath new life
> into his campaign, and blow the blackbox voting
> trainwreck onto the mainstream airwaves in a big way.
> Dean was one of the few making noises about vvpt-- so
> this is a winning move in every way, no? If so, hand
> recounting SOON is key, as with less than 10% of the
> electorate having voted, his perceived momentum and
> the funds which follow are drying up quick.
>
> edit: okay, recounting could be a losing move on two
> fronts if nothing "wrong" is uncovered. If the
> Diebold/exit poll discrepancy were a complete
> coincidence, and the hand recount of diebold-counted
> ballots yielded the same results as the diebold
> machines, then 1) DeanCo would look foolish, and 2)
> the VVPT movement would be dealt a huge credibility
> blow. Solution? Recount quietly. Hell, if the trend
> continues, the media wouldn't make a peep about the
> matter regardless-- unless of course it ended up being
> a huge Diebold vindication.
>
> snip
>
> Another poster who has a registered handle at the Dean
> blog (unlike me) said he'd posted it to the blog, and
> emailed the campaign. I haven't heard anything since.
>
> --- Joe Pezzillo wrote:
> >
> > See the article about halfway down, methodology and
> > SQL code for
> > analysis is explained first:
> >
> > Kerry Beat Dean in New Hampshire by Only 1.5% When
> > Computers Were Not
> > Doing the Counting
> >
> >
>
>
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