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CalTech/MIT: Paper Ballots More Reliable Than DRE




On Feb 11, 2004, at 4:40 PM, Nicholas Bernstein wrote:


The idea that a paper ballot marked and read by a computer is somehow more reliable than an electronic one (that doesn't have to go through this conversion) is ridiculous. I'm more than happy to talk about the difficulties in signal processing and the costs of technology if anyone's interested.


I believe the CalTech/MIT Study (2001) finds paper ballots to be more reliable than DREs:


"Our measure of reliability is the fraction of total ballots cast for which no presidential preference was counted. We call this the 'residual vote.'"

See page 10 of:

<http://www.hss.caltech.edu/ ~voting/CalTech_MIT_Report_Version2.pdf>

According to Linda Franz's summary of the results:



From that report:  Residual Votes as a Percent of all Ballots Cast, 1988-2000
(Residual ballots are overvotes and undervotes)


There will be three figures:
President, Governor & Senator, and the average of the two

Paper Ballot    1.8%,  3.3% -   2.55%
Punch Card     2.5%, 4.7% -  3.60%
Optical Scan  1.5%,  3.5% -   2.50%
Lever Machine 1.5%, 7.6% -   4.55%
Electronic       2.3%, 5.9% -   4.10%
DRE)




While they admit that Electronic Voting had the most potential for improvement at the time (although already after years of field use), they cite several serious concerns in their explanation for why DREs may always remain less reliable than paper ballots, including human factors (some people just don't understand computers, apparently, as crazy as that sounds to most of us).


It's 18 pages and I've only skimmed it, but it is certainly a powerful rebuttal to the idea that new computer systems are inherently better than traditional methods.

Linda Franz also asked a good question of the academics, including Dr. Jones:

"Does a 'statistically significant' percentage sample of the ballots need to be greater than the percentage of residual votes?"

To which I'm curious to find out the answer.

Joe